ZEV mandate: what it is and how it will impact UK drivers

Annual mandate targets to 2035 The ZEV mandate sets limits on the maximum percentage of non-ZEV cars that each manufacturer can sell, implicitly dictating that 22% of sales must be ZEV in 2024, 28% in 2025, 33% in 2026, 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030. (There are similar targets for vans, starting at 10% in 2024 and reaching 70% in 2030.) It ends there, though. It’s only indicative after that: 84% in 2031, 88% in 2032, 92% in 2033, 96% in 2034 and 100% in 2035. As of now, there’s no formal ban on the sale of new internal-combustion-engine cars from 2035, only legislation that requires 80% of new car sales to be zero-emission by 2030. It isn’t yet known what will be allowed to be sold as that 20% between 2030 and 2035, although whatever it is will still almost certainly have to meet a fleet average CO2 emissions target.  Previous legislation dictated that car makers met a fleet average for CO2 emissions. This has been rolled into the ZEV mandate, revoking European Union legislation on CO2. Called the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes (VETS), it mandates a growing proportion of ZEVs each year while also ensuring that CO2 emissions from non-ZEVs don’t increase. The CO2 part of VETS is based on a 2021 baseline figure for each manufacturer’s non-ZEV fleet average CO2 emissions. So long as it was compliant in 2021, a manufacturer can use either its actual or target CO2 figure as its reference, whichever is higher. And any future overperformance against this target can be transferred into a limited number of additional non-ZEV allowances in the first three years, potentially reducing the number of ZEVs that the manufacturer is required to sell in the earlier period of regulation.  For now, it applies only to Great Britain and not Northern Ireland, although the recent return of the Assembly at Stormont means this system is expected to be mirrored there too. Car makers can also pool, ‘bank’ and ‘borrow’ their emissions – which is where it starts to get complicated.